Melting Glaciers- Himalayas

What do glaciers melting in the Himalayas have to do with the Indian Ocean? How could something happening on land be connected to the sea? There is in fact a relationship:

Warming temperatures over Eurasia have caused the snow caps over the Himalayas to shrink. This decrease in snow cover has led to a change in the land-ocean thermal gradient which favors stronger summer monsoon winds in the Indian Ocean. The strengthening of these winds has enhanced upwelling (the process where nutrient rich water from the deep is brought to the surface) in ocean. Consequently, the amount of phytoplankton off of the coasts of Somalia and Oman has greatly increased. (see Prasad & Bigelow related websites and Goes, et al (2005) Science 308, 545-7. DOI 10.1126/science.1106610 for more information)

Current research finds the seasonal spring melting of snow cover over much of Eurasia is faster and more intense than before (personal communication). The Himalayan glaciers are the second largest body of ice in the world, covering 17% (3 million hectares) of the mountain area. Unfortunately, the Himalayan glaciers are retreating faster than any other glaciers (IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability). The image below shows the approximate recession of the Gangotri glacier- one of the largest glaciers in the Himalayans. From 1780 to 2001 this glacier retreated almost 2 km. 

(image from: NASA Earth Observatory- Jesse Allen)

Scientists monitor glaciers and ice caps because they "are key indicators and unique demonstration objects of global climate change" (WGMS. 2007. Glacier Mass Balance Bulletin No 9.). One way of monitoring is to measure the net mass balance of a glacier. The mass balance is the difference between the accumulation and ablation (melting and evaporation) of a glacier. The World Glacier Monitoring Service has been collecting information on two Himalayan glaciers. According to the mass balance data (below) the Chhota Shigri and Hamtah glaciers have an overall mass balance loss for the last three years measured.

Chhota Shigri     -1227 mm; +144 mm; -1413 mm

Hamtah     -1857 mm; -1856mm; -1391 mm

(Data from 2003/04; 2004/05; and 2005/06* respectively.) *preliminary data

A Call for Data and Cooperation

Compared to other glaciers around the world, there is a lack of information on the impact of global warming on the Himalayan glaciers. Described as a "a blind spot, a big scientific question mark" scientists are working to correct this gap. Over 70 international climate scientists met in April 2008 to begin the task of mapping glacial retreat in the Himalayas. This task will not be easy, either scientifically or politically (see article for more information). This collaboration, along with the current research on the affect of the melting Himalayan glaciers on the productivity of the Arabian Sea, will help us further understand the impact of climate change.

Social Impacts

Millions of people in Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India & Bangladesh rely on the glacial melt waters from the Himalayan glaciers. A decline in glacier mass balance can mean less water available for rivers. It is a worry that the receding glacier trend could lead to the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers in northern India becoming seasonal rivers (IPCC 2007). If these major rivers are dry during the summer months irrigation, water and food supplies will be affected.

(Himilayan Glaciers map from Zemp. 2007. Glaciers and Ice Caps)

Glacial lakes are formed by melt water, and many in the Himilayas are full. Scientists and politicians are concerned that these 'brimming' lakes may overflow (outburst) and cause devastating floods (see Zemp, 2007. Glaciers and Ice Caps in Global Outlook for Ice and Snow for more information).

Teleconference Minutes (20080627 11:30EST)

Present: Joaquim Goes, John Fasullo, John Kindle, Fei Chai, Sergio deRada


AGENDA:
1) Participation in the Conference to be held in Oman in March 2009
2) Resolving problems with NOGAPS and NCEP-NCAR wind products and moving forward in the context of our project goals
3) Manuscripts
4) Sept. 2008 Meeting at NRL, Stennis Space Centre

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSIONS:
1) Participation in the Conference held in Oman in March 2009 is encouraged (http://www.squ.edu.om/tropicalcyclones). We will have partial support from the ministries for accommodations, so individual travel expenses will only be for the airfare which was quoted (as of June 27) at around $1200.00. Participants will have to submit an extended abstract (before August 30, 2007) and paper and if there are at least 4, there will be a special session for this topic.

2) Motivated by the initial NOGAPS trend plots made by John Fasullo, discussions about forcing (wind) products were conducted in an effort to focus the research towards achieving the goals set forth in the hypothesis. Given that NOGAPS (available only from 2000) is not reproducing the desired trends in Goes, et al. Paper, which was the foundation of the proposal, the group discussed the usage of other products to force the ocean model. NOGAPS could be used for modeling ocean response to storms and meso-scale features of interest in the area that could lead to procure new funding, but does not seem to suit the purposes of this research.

• NCEP: Considerations to run the ocean model from 1995 (2 years spin up) with NCEP atmospheric forcing were discussed. The simulation will only be relaxed to WOA surface salinity and MCSST surface temperature in an effort to attribute the model response mainly to the atmospheric forcing. This will allow us to have a base simulation using the data from which the paper is based.
  
  
• ERA 40: Reanalysis product from ECMWF is not a viable choice because it ends in 2001 and forcing data are needed through at least 2005.
  
  
• SeaWINDS: Is a QuickScat-derived product suggested by Fei Chai which covers the period (1997 to 2004) of interest and into the present. John Fasullo will do trend analysis of this product to assess their feasibility. The question that remains is "What to use for heat fluxes if these winds are suitable?"

Once John Fasullo performs initial analysis of trends in the SeaWINDS product, a collective decision will be made for new ocean model simulations, most likely being 2 long-term simulations: One using NCEP forcing, and the second using SeaWINDS (heat fluxes to be determined), both starting around 1995 for a 2 year spin-up and running through 2004 (Paper analysis is from 1997-2004), and possibly extending into the present.

3) Suggested manuscripts will be exchanged by email with members of the project for potential publication and/or presentation in OMAN.

4) There will be a "mini" project meeting at Stennis Space Center, MS on September 9 and 10, 2008. This allows travel days on the 8th and the 11th or 12th and possibly a weekend in New Orleans, but please allow at least both full days (9th and 10th) as there will be plenty to discuss. I would suggest informal presentations on Tuesday as we did in Maine to start the meeting. Some Logistics:

• Airports close to Stennis are: New Orleans (MSY) and Gulfport (GPT). They are both about 1hr away, but MSY is a much bigger and better served airport.
• Accomodations can be done at the B&B 2 blocks from my house. I get a healthy discount and it's a nice, quite, and convenient place to stay, including being able to ride to Stennis together. I can arrange the reservations once everyone confirms. Here is the place: http://www.woodridgebb.com/.
• I plant to host dinner at my house (short walk from the B&B) one of those nights. New Orleans is also a nice place to visit and the food is great. (~45 minute drive from Slidell).
• For anyone that is not a U.S. Citizen, we need to do some paperwork to approve their visit to SSC way in advance, so please email me directly as soon as possible so we can start the paperwork.
  

Please post comments clarifying any of the above, but I think it would be more efficient to "discuss" issues via emails among the group.